My premise is that given a set of medium-sized towns which includes a statistically significant amount of both hand and machine counting, the ratio of votes received by each candidate from AccuVote machines should match the overall ratio for the towns. For example, for towns with 500-800 votes, 41% of total votes were by AccuVote, so I would expect the individual candidates to show 41% of their votes from AccuVote.
However Obama's AccuVote numbers come in significantly lower, and are consistently lowest among the candidates for various vote ranges I've tried. Conversely, Clinton's machine vote numbers are significantly higher than the overall ratio, and consistently highest among the candidates.
Data sources:
Stats for New Hampshire 2008 Democratic Primary
111 of 237 towns (46%) used AccuVote machines.
239632 of 284104 total votes (84%) by AccuVote machines.
Considering set of towns with 300-900 votes.
87 towns (36%) had votes in this range, representing 50220 (17%) of total votes.
Within this set, 33 towns (37%) used AccuVote, representing 22994 (45.8%) of votes.
Comparison of hand and machine votes by candidate:
Clinton Obama Edwards Richardson
total: 18092 19232 9155 2707
hand: 9046 (50.0%) 11204 (58.3%) 4802 (52.5%) 1533 (56.6%)
accuvote: 9046 (50.0%) 8028 (41.7%) 4353 (47.5%) 1174 (43.4%)
Stats for New Hampshire 2008 Republican Primary
111 of 237 towns (46%) used AccuVote machines.
197251 of 233424 total votes (84%) by AccuVote machines.
Considering set of towns with 300-900 votes.
85 towns (35%) had votes in this range, representing 46582 (19%) of total votes.
Within this set, 36 towns (42%) used AccuVote, representing 23323 (50.1%) of votes.
Comparison of hand and machine votes by candidate:
McCain Romney Huckabee Giuliani Paul
total: 18565 12769 6123 3998 4213
hand: 9524 (51.3%) 6058 (47.4%) 3108 (50.8%) 1996 (49.9%) 2127 (50.5%)
accuvote: 9041 (48.7%) 6711 (52.6%) 3015 (49.2%) 2002 (50.1%) 2086 (49.5%)